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New Lebanon Cabinet Cautious of Hizbullah Dispute
Lebanon's new government, a shaky coalition of Western-backed factions and Hizbullah, is unlikely to tackle the chief challenge the country faces — a buildup of the Iranian-backed group's weapons — even as the rockets cause sharp new tensions with neighboring Israel.
On Wednesday, Israel released documents and photos it said proved Iran was behind a shipment of weapons seized last week, which Israel claimed was bound for Hizbullah.

Hizbullah has denied any links to the arms ship. The day before, the Israeli army chief told parliament members that the Shiite group now has tens of thousands of rockets stored in southern Lebanon, and could strike deep into Israel.

The U.N. resolution that ended a bitter 2006 monthlong war between Hizbullah and Israel called for Hizbullah's disarmament, something the group has strongly rejected.

The new Lebanese government formed Monday, headed by Prime Minister Saad Hariri and including two Hizbullah ministers, is not expected to make a major push to disarm the group.

The reason: Hizbullah's arsenal remains a divisive issue among the Lebanese, and any action by Hariri could immediately cause a crisis in his new government — or even a renewed outbreak of the sectarian violence that tore through Beirut in spring 2008, analysts say.

"If the government moves to force Hizbullah to lay down its arms, Hizbullah will definitely resist this, something that will lead to civil unrest in the country," said Ali Hamadeh, a political analyst with the daily An-Nahar.

Instead, Hizbullah weapons will likely remain an issue for a so-called "national dialogue." Rival Lebanese factions have been conducting such dialogue periodically the past three years. But they have so far made no progress on a defense strategy that would eventually integrate Hizbullah's weapons into the Lebanese regular armed forces.

Hizbullah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah said recently that the group has replenished its weapons stock since its 2006 conflict with Israel and now has more than 30,000 rockets.

The world's concern with Hizbullah's weapons was reflected in a White House statement Tuesday that praised the Cabinet's formation after more than four months of deadlock, but called on the government to implement U.N. Security Council resolutions that call for dismantling all militias in Lebanon.

"Had there been no Hizbullah weapons, the world would have ignored Lebanon and no one would have cared about the formation of a new Cabinet," said Ibrahim Bayram, another political analyst.

Hariri's Cabinet is the first since his Western-backed alliance narrowly defeated the Hizbullah-led coalition in June elections, enabling it to retain a slim majority in parliament.

Hariri sought to form the unity government as a way of overcoming the country's deep sectarian divisions and avoiding a repeat of last year's fighting that nearly drove Lebanon to the brink of a new civil war.

But given the major differences over both Hizbullah's weapons and political and economic reforms, "this Cabinet has a slim chance of success," said Hamadeh.

Hizbullah has a virtual veto power over the government's moves, most analysts believe — because if it pulls out, sectarian violence could follow.

The withdrawal of five Shiite ministers and an allied Christian minister from the previous government in late 2006 led to a fierce power struggle between the Hizbullah-led bloc and the Western-backed government.

The political standoff turned violent in May 2008 when Hizbullah fighters and supporters swept through Sunni neighborhoods of Beirut to briefly seize control.(AP)

 

Beirut, 16 Nov 09, 09:56
 
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