Global Financial Markets Dive after Poll Puts Trump Ahead
With less than one week to go until Election Day, a national poll showing Donald Trump with a narrow lead over Hillary Clinton sent global financial markets tumbling Wednesday, as both candidates focused on scrapping for votes in battleground states.
Major European stock markets opened lower in the wake of a dip Tuesday on Wall Street (down 0.7 percent), followed by plunges in Tokyo (-1.76 percent) and Hong Kong (-1.45 percent) on fears that the maverick billionaire could win the White House.
"It's been clear for some time now that markets would much prefer the stability that a Clinton victory would bring for the U.S. economy and the reaction over the last 24 hours or so since the polls started to change so dramatically just confirms this," Craig Erlam, a senior market analyst at OANDA, said in a note.
An ABC News/Washington Post tracking poll out Tuesday showed Trump ahead 46 to 45 percent, while other polls still put Clinton in the lead but suggest the race has narrowed as November 8 looms.
The 70-year-old real estate mogul boasted about the new numbers as he addressed a raucous crowd -- chanting "Lock her up!" and "Drain the swamp!" -- in Eau Claire, Wisconsin, before turning the knife.
"The Clintons are the sordid past. And we will be the bright and clean future," he declared.
Renewed FBI scrutiny of Clinton's controversial use of a private email server as secretary of state has excited Republicans and underlined public doubts about the Democrat's trustworthiness.
- 'Reflect on the absurdity' -
But when the 69-year-old Democratic candidate took the stage at a rally in Fort Lauderdale late Tuesday, her fierce rhetoric was backed by a new survey of early voters that shows her winning Florida.
"Well, I'll tell you what!" she declared, her voice cracking but her tone triumphant. "Donald Trump has proven himself to be temperamentally unfit and unqualified to be president of the United States."
At another event in Dade County, Clinton was introduced by Alicia Machado, a former Miss Universe whom Trump, then the owner of the pageant, publicly belittled by mocking her post-victory weight gain.
"Can we just stop for a minute and reflect on the absurdity of Donald Trump finding fault with Miss Universe?" Clinton said.
Trump's doctor says he is more than overweight at 236 pounds (107 kilograms).
"What about our girls? What happens to their confidence, their sense of self-worth?" she demanded, warning against a president "who insults more than half the population."
Pollster TargetSmart forecast that Clinton could win Florida -- and effectively bar Trump any route to the White House -- by a massive eight point margin, 48 to 40 percent.
The Florida poll, conducted with the College of William and Mary, used only a small sample of voters but targeted those who had already cast ballots under the state's early voting law.
An average of earlier Florida polls by tracker RealClearPolitics gives Trump a narrow one point lead there, but TargetSmart's survey suggests many registered Republicans have switched camps.
- Must-win states -
In order to win the White House, Trump must take at least one normally Democratic state like Wisconsin, swing states like Florida and the Republican heartland.
Wisconsin backed President Barack Obama in 2012, but if Trump can win its 10 electoral college votes, it could put him over the 270 threshold and win him the keys to 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.
But this remains a long shot. The New York Times statistical model gives Clinton an 88 percent chance of winning, while data tracking website FiveThirtyEight says she has a 74 percent chance.
Nevertheless, the tumultuous race -- which has featured footage showing Trump boasting of sexual assault and claims of Russian interference in the contest -- may have a few twists left.
On Monday, Trump was hit by fresh allegations in a detailed report by The New York Times that he not only dodged paying income tax but did so in a way that has since been outlawed.
Source: Agence France Presse
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