IMF Lowers Lebanon Growth Forecast to 1.5%
إقرأ هذا الخبر بالعربية
The International Monetary Fund said Wednesday it has revised down its forecast for economic growth in Lebanon to 1.5 percent in 2011 after many years of robust expansion, due to political uncertainty and unrest in neighboring Syria.
The drop revealed in the IMF's Regional Economic Outlook, released in Dubai, is the second this year after the fund lowered its expected growth to 2.5 percent in the spring.
"That is our best estimate," the IMF's director for the Middle East and Central Asia, Masood Ahmed, told Agence France Presse.
A five-month delay in the formation of a government until June and unrest in Syria have "led to a slowdown in economic activity quite significantly in Lebanon resulting in the revision of our estimates," he said.
He said the two factors have had "consequences on confidence" in the economy which grew at no less than 7.5 percent between 2007 and 2010, according to IMF figures.
Ahmed said that the slowdown is noticed in the property sector, which grew rapidly over the past couple of years, but also in the whole economy.
"It is a more generalized slowdown that we have seen," he said, noting that "the fiscal position has deteriorated a bit, in part because of the slowdown in the economy and also because fuel tax excises have been halved."
Lebanon's fiscal deficit will rise to 7.8 percent of GDP in 2011, compared to 7.3 percent in 2010, the IMF report said.
The fund is more optimistic on the prospects for next year, expecting the economy to pick up pace and expand by 3.5 percent.
"In the second half of the year, there has been a government in place. There is a bit more certainty coming from that," Ahmed said, adding that the "assumption is that during the course of next year, things in the region will continue to stabilize."
Earlier this month, the World Bank revised downward its forecast for Lebanon's economic growth from seven percent expected in January to four percent, forecasting a fiscal deficit of 5.5 percent of GDP.
Lebanon staggers under a public debt of more than 53 billion dollars, equivalent to around 135 percent of the country's GDP.
Tourism witnessed a 15.5 percent drop in the number of arrivals for the first quarter of 2011 compared to the same period in 2010.
Property transactions also fell 21 percent quarter on quarter while customs revenues dropped some 20 percent compared to the same period last year.
The decline was widely attributed to the uprisings gripping the region coupled with domestic troubles that left Beirut without a government for five months.
26 October 2011, 22:24
04
So under the March 14 governments the country's economy was growing at a much faster pace and under March 8 its growth is diminishing continually.
26 October 2011, 23:43
01
typically, any economic growth below 2% means that unemployment rate will increase. Only God knows what the unemployment rate in Lebanon or inflation are. Most statistics are not accurate.
The main problem in Lebanon is that the large of the informal sector is too big due to unfair tax codes and lack of government control. Something similar takes place in Greece. While Greece has the EU backing it, we have nobody.
27 October 2011, 00:12
110
@aounophobia
I'm Lebanese living in Canada, studying economics and political science at a prestigious university, and I have been able to study Lebanese politics and economy for a while. If anything, public debt is attributed to Rafiq el-Hariri's massive debt that he created in order to rebuild downtown Lebanon (by inserting his companies and profiteering from the debt). The government that you accuse of slowing down the economy created a bill that will generate electricity 24/7. Even if there are some flaws (no bill is perfect) it is an important step in the right direction for the Lebanese economy. Last time I checked, it was Saad el-Hariri trying to keep the Lebanese economy highly privatized in order to gain profits at the expense of the Lebanese people. You should take some time to read more articles and books, something most Lebanese people in Lebanon fail to do and just speak with little understanding of the basics of economics or politics.
27 October 2011, 01:24
110
hey aounophobia, let me enlighten you cose i think the most economics u got in ur lifeis the bill at the restaurant and the who pays debate. 1.5 percent growth is INCREDIBLY GOOD NEWS, all u have to do is compare to europe's and the us's figures, and then compare it to the middle east as a whole and country by countre, and see the difference...most of em have a 0 percent growth forecast. Plus, ur harriri freind decided that lebanon doesnt need industries, nor farmers, nor anythg that's linked to the real economy, under the pretext that its not the financial capitalism that the states and the imf proclaim. so my freind, if ur waiting for any occasion to jump over aoun's actions, know one thing, if there were 30 bassil's and Nahas in the gov, we would be in a far better situatio. oh btw, to the bullshiters that say that Nahas is a marxist, just liste to Fillon's speech in front of parliament, about public sector reform, and dare call him a marxist intellectually bankrupt people.
27 October 2011, 09:09
05
@theeconomist
with respect to your knowledge, kindly remember that all what is currently being approved by this cabinet, are laws prepared previously during the past cabinets.
why they are passing now is simple: they were blocked previously by the current majority. so please do not give them a misplaced credit.
although I do not care for Hariri policies and doings, I just wanted to set things straight in this respect.
this government has not come up yet with any new law project except the salary increase, which is a total flop. :)
27 October 2011, 10:05
010
@so called economist:
_ First advice I give you boy is to stay studying in school coz u need a lot more than just being a student at " a prestigious university" to call yourself the economist.
Harriri or any other Prime minister had to rebuild the country after 20 years of civil war..... a war created and fueled by Lebanese warlords including your beloved ailing general. If you know anything about economy, you will surely know that any country has to borrow in order to finance such huge task. Add to this the various unnecessary wars started by your ally Hizb of thugs which added further financial burden on the treasury.
My dear student: you may have some promising future, but stay away from prejudice and hatred coz it will not help you. You and your likes always blame Harriri forgeting that in a country like Lebanon the Prime Minister does not rule by himself. Were there not a Christian President, A shiite Speaker, and a Parliament representing the various elements of society?
26 December 2011, 16:29
00
@ Justice
I totally agree with you, since hariri did not hold any arm during the Lebanese civil war.
In fact he did not have to, since he was selling armor to the participating warlords at the time.
Cheers.
