Borisov to Bounce Back in Bulgaria Election

Bulgarians voted Sunday in elections expected to result in a remarkable comeback for strongman Boyko Borisov, less than two years after mass protests in the EU's poorest member caused his resignation.

Time will tell however whether the right-wing former bodyguard will be able to implement painful reforms and restore voters' tattered trust in democracy by tackling rampant corruption, organised crime and cronyism.

"The situation is very hard but people expect us to get our act together and take the country out of the crisis," Borisov told Agence France Presse on the campaign trail last week.

The average monthly salary in this southeastern European country of 7.4 million is a meager 400 euros ($500), and seven years after joining the European Union every fifth household lives below the poverty line.

Economic growth is sluggish and there are major worries about Bulgaria's financial system, with tens of thousands of customers at the fourth-largest bank unable to withdraw funds since June because it is under investigation.

Undermining faith in democracy is the perception that amid all the misery, a well-connected clique -- Porsche SUVs are not uncommon in downtown Sofia -- are still lining their pockets and are above the law.

Such sentiments in the ex-communist country were stoked last week when a privately owned munitions plant where managers ignored safety warnings was flattened in a huge explosion, killing 15 people.

Floods this summer, which environmentalists say were exacerbated by people being able to sidestep regulations on logging and construction, left some 30 people dead.

Turnout at this second snap election in 17 months is expected to be only 45 percent, and a recent study estimated that almost 500,000 people will sell their votes for money, food or firewood.

"Who is there to vote for, it's just the same faces again," said hairdresser and mother-of-two Iva Kutchukova, 35, echoing the views of many.

- Anger -

It was anger at this poverty and corruption that erupted in the protests that ended the plain-speaking Borisov's first term two winters ago. Several people even set themselves on fire.

The subsequent technocrat government installed by the Socialists fared little better, and after 14 months of almost constant demonstrations it too threw in the towel in July, necessitating this latest election.

Opinion polls put support for Borisov's GERB party at 31-37 percent, ahead of the Socialists on 19-21 percent and the Turkish minority MRF party on 13-16 percent.

This could mean that 55-year-old Borisov will have to form a coalition, or at least a minority government -- as he did during his first term -- relying on the support of other parties.

Authorities opened 54 investigations into vote-buying before voting day, with two people given suspended sentences, but this is the tip of the iceberg.

In addition to people selling their votes, hundreds of thousands are thought to have been threatened with losing their jobs or even violence unless they vote a certain way.

- Short-lived -

Even if Borisov manages to form a government -- much will depend on the performance of smaller parties -- it will likely be short-lived, analysts predict.

"This government won't last longer than the next presidential election in October 2016," said Parvan Simeonov from the Gallup polling institute.

The former firefighter will also have to walk a tightrope balancing Bulgaria's traditionally close relations with Russia, the source of most of its gas, and its economic ties with the rest of the EU.

Russia's new South Stream gas pipeline is due to go through Bulgaria, but in June -- under Western pressure because of the Ukraine crisis -- the NATO member suspended construction.