Iran-Saudi rapprochement could redraw Mideast map

The rapprochement between Iran and Saudi Arabia under Chinese mediation could redraw the Middle East map completely, with significant spillovers for the strategic and troubled region.

- A paradigm shift -

The Tehran-Riyadh accord "is an illustration of a much larger paradigm shift that has been going on for years," says Pierre Razoux of the Mediterranean Foundation of Strategic Studies (FMES).

"The United States is no longer viewed as the region's dominant power. Its traditional allies doubt the U.S. commitment to protect them, so they're looking elsewhere."

Razoux believes that "China is now seen as a new stabilizing power."

Beijing's objective "is not to pacify the region but to stabilize it, using financial incentives. China is not yet ready to engage militarily in the region."

Political scientist Fatiha Dazi-Heni, of the Institute for Strategic Research (IRSEM) in Paris, says that despite its deal with Iran, Saudi Arabia "does not want to align itself against the United States."

"All of Riyadh's official statements... aim to reassure its American partner, underlining its desire to find a fine balance between the two superpowers," she wrote.

- Assad rehabilitated? -

The regional powers, mainly Sunni Muslim Saudi Arabia and Shiite-majority Iran, have waged proxy wars for years.

Their coming together "could have consequences in Yemen, Iraq, Syria and Lebanon," says Razoux.

He believes that although this may not resolve crises in those countries, it "may ease them, since regional actors will no longer have any interest in pouring oil on the fire."

Syria's President Bashar al-Assad, with Iranian and Russian support, has survived the civil war that has ravaged his country since 2011, despite Riyadh being among states which backed the rebels.

The pariah of the international community is once again becoming acceptable to countries in the region.

"Saudi Arabia normalizing relations with Bashar al-Assad would allow Riyadh to counter Russian and Turkish influence and invest in the country's reconstruction," Razoux says.

- Appeasement in Yemen? -

Tehran backs Yemen's Huthi rebels battling the government, which has been supported by a Saudi-led military coalition since 2015.

Yasmine Farouk, of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, says Riyadh is relying on a comprehensive approach from China to safeguard Saudi interests.

"Saudi Arabia is relying on regulated coexistence in the Gulf, and a mix of competition and containment in Syria and Iraq," she says.

Nadwa al-Dawsari, of the Middle East Institute, says: "The Huthis' military gains have allowed them to dictate the path of international diplomacy in Yemen," she says.

"A slow-burning proxy conflict has been brewing in southern Yemen between the Saudis and Emiratis," she adds.

Razoux believes these allies "do not share the same vision of Yemen's future," and that Abu Dhabi "would be satisfied with its partition."

This would allow the UAE to pursue its own geopolitical objectives in the Red Sea and off the Horn of Africa.

- Iraq, Lebanon and Israel -

In Iraq, where Tehran plays a key role, "Riyadh also wants this normalization to calm things with the Shiite militias" there, says Dazi-Heni.

"The agreement could make it possible to ease internal tensions, reducing the risks of a relapse into civil war, with each country having to give guarantees to the other parties," believes Razoux.

Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, who heads the Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon, has said that the Saudi-Iran deal could help resolve problems in that country.

"Iran and the Saudis should agree to prevent the country from collapsing," Razoux says of Lebanon, because such a scenario would "harm both parties,"

For Israel, the consequences of the Saudi-Iran deal appear less favorable, given that it faces a decline in U.S. influence and a crippling domestic political crisis.

"Riyadh's decision to resume diplomatic relations" with Iran is "extremely problematic" for Israel, write researchers Giorgio Cafiero and Shehab Al Makahleh in the Quincy Institute magazine "Responsible Statecraft".

The cornerstone of Israel's foreign policy is to isolate its arch-enemy Tehran. It has sought to integrate Riyadh into the coalition confronting Iran as it rapidly approaches the status of a nuclear-armed power.