Geagea Sees No Civil War Risk despite Economic Crisis

Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea admits the country has hit rock bottom amid its economic downturn but has cautioned against drawing parallels to the civil war era.

“Lebanon is at the bottom now. You can see the miserable state of the economy and the daily, unbearable life struggles,” Geagea said in an English-language interview with the Emirati newspaper The National.

He however reassured that there is no threat of another civil war.

“This is not a 1975 moment in Lebanon. The [economic] struggles of someone in Tripoli [north] are the same of someone in Nabatiyeh [south],” Geagea noted.

Instead, he expects more social unrest and popular upheaval in the months to come.

As for the stalled cabinet formation process, Geagea assessed that there is “50-50 chance” for the formation of a government led by Najib Miqati.

“The Lebanese population is fed up. Free and fair early elections can happen and would bring back faith in Lebanon,” he added.

Asked about Hizbullah’s likely rejection of early elections, Geagea said the Iran-backed party is facing unprecedented challenges.

“Yes, Hizbullah is politically dominant but is showing many cracks and vulnerabilities,” he said. “The events of Shwayya were unprecedented. They happened in the deep south and have exposed a serious crisis for Hizbullah,” Geagea pointed out.

The LF leader also argued that though Hizbullah’s military clout extends from Beirut to Sanaa, the party can be politically contained in the parliamentary elections.