Israelis worried over Hezbollah as intel expert rules out escalation

Sarit Zehavi, founder and director of Alma, a research center in the upper Galilee region near Lebanon’s border, says she is worried about the safety of her family.

"I don't sleep anymore. I think non-stop about the fence around my home that I need to reinforce. About Hamas, we have seen what could happen to us," said Zehavi, a reserve lieutenant colonel in the Israeli army and mother of three children, including two teenagers.

"The attacks from Lebanon are the doing of Hezbollah ... and we know today that there is no barrier that could prevent an infiltration," she added.

She then showed AFP a short Hezbollah film from 2014, in which its leader, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, explains with a smile his group’s plan to "control Galilee" and lists Israel’s strategic points -- its factories, refineries, highways, shopping centers, airports, military bases and so on.

The similarities with the attack that Hamas actually carried out are striking: massive salvos of rockets launched at northern Israel, a wave of Hezbollah commandos crossing the border and penetrating Israel, supported by drones and speed boats.

"It is certain that Hezbollah has in mind to invade Galilee one day," Zehavi said.

The Israeli government is taking the threat seriously. It was concern about a possible war with Hezbollah that prompted the Israeli authorities to evacuate 22,000 residents from the nearby city of Kiryat Shmona.

Only a few hundred remain, mainly the elderly or disabled -- people taken care of by the army who have had to relocate to a camp on the edge of the town.

The same is true of all the kibbutz communities along the Lebanese border. Some, such as Hanita and Dafna, founded at the end of the 1930s, are now deserted.

- 'Determined' -

A senior army officer deployed to defend the area told AFP: "We are being deployed here up north to defend our northern border against Hezbollah attack. We are ... ready to deter any attack.

"Every day is a combat day, every day there are multiple attacks from Hezbollah," added the officer, who did not wish to give his name.

Hezbollah and allied Palestinian factions have fired rockets and missiles across the border almost daily since October 7, drawing retaliatory Israeli artillery fire.

At least 62 people have been killed in Lebanon, according to an AFP tally, mostly Hezbollah combatants but also four civilians including Reuters journalist Issam Abdallah. Israeli officials have reported four deaths, including one civilian.

In 2006, Israel and Hezbollah fought a bloody conflict that left more than 1,200 people dead in Lebanon, mostly civilians, and 160 in Israel, mostly soldiers.

Veteran Israeli intelligence officer Avi Melamed said it was far from certain that Hezbollah would go to war against Israel this time.

"The Iranians who control Hezbollah have a dilemma: do nothing and allow the Israeli-Palestinian conflict to continue. Or act and take the risk that Israel's response destroys Hamas and Hezbollah's ability to act," said Melamed.

"That's why, at this stage, they have only launched limited attacks, so as to avoid escalation," he said.