Would Hezbollah join Iran war if US intervened?

W460

Hezbollah will not join the fray in the Israeli-Iranian war, a Lebanese government source told al-Jadeed Thursday, after an Iranian official told al-Jazeera that Hezbollah would act if the United States intervened to back up its ally Israel.

"The communication between the Lebanese Army and Hezbollah is reassuring," the source said, ruling out such a possibility.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Thursday that the entire "Shiite axis" including Hezbollah is not responding to Israeli attacks on Iran.

"Hezbollah has not fired a single rocket," Netanyahu said. "If we eliminate Iran, all its proxies will collapse," he added.

A U.S.-brokered ceasefire deal brought an end to the latest Israel-Hezbollah war in November. Hezbollah lost much of its senior leadership and arsenal in the conflict and has remained largely quiet since then and has given no indication that it intends to join the fray between Israel and Iran.

Israeli forces have continued to occupy several border points in southern Lebanon and to carry out regular airstrikes on what Israel says are Hezbollah facilities since the ceasefire.

Caroline Rose, a director at the Washington-based New Lines Institute think tank said that while it seems "clear that Iran-backed proxies across the region — particularly Hezbollah—just do not have the capacity" to enter the fray, Israel could decide to expand the scope of its offensive beyond Iran.

One of the goals announced by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was to eliminate Iran's "axis of terrorism" — the coalition of Tehran-backed armed groups across the region known as the "Axis of Resistance."

That goal "is ambiguous and offers Israel the operational space to expand this war to countries it deems are hosting Iran-backed proxies, no matter how weak they may be," Rose said.

Hezbollah on Thursday condemned Israel's threat to kill Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei after an Israeli hospital was hit during an Iranian missile attack, describing it as "an act of recklessness and foolishness" that would have "grave consequences", but said nothing about military intervening, while Iran-backed militants in Iraq, threatened to attack U.S. citizens in the event that Khamenei is targeted.

Earlier this week, Hezbollah political bureau member Mahmoud Qmati denied that Hezbollah would get involved in the Iranian-Israeli war and said that "Iran is strong enough and does not need military support from anyone" but that was before U.S. President Donald Trump dangled the prospect of U.S. involvement.

- 'I may do it, I may not' -

Khamenei has rejected Trump's demand for an "unconditional surrender", despite the president's claims that "Iran's got a lot of trouble and they want to negotiate".

Trump has left his intentions on joining the conflict deliberately ambiguous, saying Wednesday: "I may do it, I may not do it. I mean, nobody knows what I'm going to do.

"The next week is going to be very big," he added, without further details.

Any U.S. involvement would be expected to involve the bombing of a crucial underground Iranian nuclear facility in Fordo, using specially developed bunker-busting bombs.

The White House said Trump would receive an intelligence briefing on Thursday, a U.S. holiday. Top U.S. diplomat Marco Rubio is set meet his British counterpart for talks expected to focus on the conflict.

"I have ideas as to what to do, but I haven't made a final (decision)," Trump said. "I like to make the final decision one second before it's due, because things change. Especially with war."

The Wall Street Journal reported that Trump had told aides on Tuesday he had approved attack plans but was holding off to see if Iran would give up its nuclear program.

The U.S. president had favored a diplomatic route to end Iran's nuclear program, seeking a deal to replace the 2015 agreement he tore up in his first term.

But since Israel unleashed the campaign against Iran last week, Trump has stood behind the key U.S. ally.

- 'Very bad decision' -

The U.S. special envoy for Syria Tom Barrack on Thursday warned Hezbollah against getting involved in the war between Iran and Israel.

"I can say on behalf of President (Donald) Trump... that would be a very, very, very bad decision," Barrack said after his meeting with Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri.

The Lebanese foreign ministry said last week that it was "continuing its contacts" to spare the country from being dragged into any conflict.

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