Report: Israeli escalation possible but all-out war ruled out

Political sources have ruled out the possibility of Israel launching a large-scale war on Lebanon in the foreseeable future, citing the absence of regional and international conditions, the lack of necessary capabilities and resources, the uncertainty of militarily eliminating Hezbollah, and the risk of jeopardizing the gains Israel achieved during the two-year war, al-Binaa newspaper reported on Tuesday.

“A negotiations climate will prevail over the war climate and international and regional contacts, negotiations and initiatives will restrain Israel and grant Lebanon an additional two-month grace period to address the issue of weapons north of the Litani River,” the sources said.

The sources, however, did not rule out sudden Israeli escalation through “a series of painful blows to Hezbollah in the South, the Bekaa and Beirut’s southern suburbs which might target residential areas that the (Israeli) occupation claims they contain arms and missiles.”

The sources added that Israel “might target Lebanese state interests to pressure the government to offer further concessions.”

Al-Binaa meanwhile reported that intensive Egyptian, Saudi and Qatari meetings and contacts have been taking place for the past two weeks in an attempt to contain the Israeli escalation and reach solutions.

“The Saudi-Qatari meeting in Saudi Arabia comes within this context and followed a visit by a Hezbollah delegation to Qatar,” the newspaper added.

A Lebanese official also revealed to the al-Anbaa the presence of intensive Saudi efforts with international decision-making circles to pressure Israel to halt its attacks on Lebanon, commit to negotiations and implement international resolutions.

The official said that international and Arab discussions are focused on the Lebanese government and army ensuring the complete demilitarization of the area south of the Litani River and extending state control over it. The discussions also aim to guarantee that Hezbollah will not launch attacks on Israel from the South, and for the government to announce the transition to the second phase of confining weapons in the area north of the Litani, or at least containing and preventing their use.

“This would be reciprocated by a complete cessation of Israeli attacks, negotiations on the withdrawal from occupied territories, the settlement of disputed areas, border demarcation, the release of prisoners, the return of displaced persons, and the commencement of reconstruction,” the official added.

However, according to al-Binaa's sources, none of the international envoys, including the Americans, have been able to obtain any promises from the Israeli government on reciprocating the steps taken by Lebanon.