Report: Undeclared Lebanon-Israel talks make major progress

Unannounced, U.S.-brokered negotiations between Lebanon and Israel have made major progress, a senior source said.

“These negotiations, led by a high-ranking Lebanese figure, are based on a mutually agreed-upon framework of concessions,” the source told the Nidaa al-Watan newspaper.

The source added that these negotiations, in which the Lebanese side is vehemently demanding that Israel show flexibility regarding the points it has occupied, are the same factors that prompted Hezbollah to allow the Cabinet session on weapons to proceed smoothly.

“Escalation at the Cabinet table harms the negotiation process and undermines the points of compromise on the table,” the source explained.

The source added that Washington, which is overseeing the negotiations, is acting based on two firm principles: preserving Lebanon's unity and guaranteeing Israel's security.

Under the proposed agreement, Washington would guarantee Israel's withdrawal from one or two occupied points in south Lebanon, in exchange for Lebanon “storing” Hezbollah's weapons.

“There are negotiations on placing the weapons in depots, in coordination between the Lebanese Army and Hezbollah, which would lead to a lengthy period of conflict suspension, during which Hezbollah would strictly commit to not attacking Israel. With time, this would turn the weapons into junk, while Washington would guarantee Israel’s withdrawal from one point after another,” the source said.

According to the source, this complex negotiating framework allows both Hezbollah and Israel a period for monitoring each other's behavior. It also provides Lebanon with an opportunity to progress on its path to recovery and offers the U.S. a guarantee of Israel's security without the need to worry about Hezbollah's potential actions.

The source attributed the shift in Hezbollah’s stance to four crucial points:

“1. The American siege on Iran’s leadership.

2. The limited room for maneuver domestically.

3. The rejection by the (Shiite) Duo's popular base of engaging in a new war.

4. Hezbollah's limited capacity to wage war, or even to defend itself effectively.”

The source elaborated on the fourth point, explaining that Hezbollah spent 18 years between the 2006 war and the 2024 war stockpiling weapons, while Israel pursued its strategic objectives one after another. The result was that the military machine of Iran and Hezbollah was defeated by Israel's technological, security, and intelligence capabilities.