Lebanese Government Down, What's Next?

W460

The resignation of Lebanon's government marks a new phase in the unprecedented two-week-old protests against corruption and sectarianism that have gripped the country.

It was welcomed as a victory by the protesters -- but can it really be classified as one?

Karim Bitar, a professor of international relations in Paris and Beirut, answers AFP's questions on what comes next for the country.

- Good news for the protesters?

Prime Minister Saad Hariri announced his government's resignation on Tuesday.

"The demonstrators rejoiced, with the feeling that it was a first step towards the transition they're asking for, towards a Lebanese civic identity, an independent government," said Bitar.

"But it may be fake good news, with the resignation allowing the Lebanese political class to buy time, a stalling tactic to demobilize the public and make sure that life returns to the country before bringing back the same clique in a few days or weeks."

"The political class is banking on the protest running out of steam, that much is clear. It hopes the Lebanese, choked by economic hardship, will resume their daily lives."

- Can Hariri return as PM?

"One of the scenarios being considered is that he returns at the helm of a revamped line-up but at this stage nothing is clear."

"This is an unprecedented situation, even by Lebanese standards of political uncertainty. Everybody was caught flat-footed by these events and everything is possible."

"Among the demands of the protesters is... a neutral, independent and democratic government led by somebody other than Hariri. It may be tough for the elite to stomach but it remains high on the people's wish-list."

"Another of the movement's demands is that this independent government, if it ever comes true, gives the country a new and more balanced electoral law."

"The most important thing is for this law to provide strict oversight of electoral financing and ensure equal media access for all candidates. This is necessary for the renewal of the political class the Lebanese want."

- Whither the protest movement?

"This movement needs structure and it also needs to retain a certain unanimity in its demands, which are the overhaul of the political system, as well as a neutral and technocratic government which is independent from both Lebanon's communal leaders and from foreign powers."

"At first this movement's strength came from the fact that it has no leader, that everybody could identify to it and that it could not be coopted by any party."

"This strength can turn into a weakness when it'll come to following through with parliamentary elections and facing parties that are very well structured and financed and -- it cannot be ignored -- have leaders who retain a following."

"This is akin to what happened in Egypt in 2011 -- at first (it was) a leaderless revolution that energized the country's youth, but as soon as the elections came, we saw that those who were in the streets really struggled to convert mobilization into votes."

"Eventually the Muslim Brotherhood and the salafists garnered around 60 percent of the vote."

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