Islamist-led Opposition Tipped to Win Kuwait Elections

Kuwait's Islamist-led opposition appears headed for a key victory in this week's general election, described as crucial for the future of the oil-rich Gulf state.

The outcome of Thursday's ballot, the fourth in just under six years, is not expected to end political turmoil that has paralyzed development in OPEC's third largest oil producer, however.

"All indications show the opposition dominating the next parliament and immediately pressing for constitutional reforms," said Saad bin Taflah, a prominent political analyst.

"But I am not optimistic the elections will lead to political stability unless fundamental democratic reforms are undertaken," bin Taflah, a former information minister, told Agence France Presse.

The opposition is a loose formation of Islamists, liberals, nationalists and independents who can be united on reforms and development plans but differ on other issues.

"Thursday's polls will not lead to stability because enemies of democracy will not remain silent after their defeat," another analyst, Anwar al-Rashid, said.

"Their plan is to convince people that democracy is harmful and it is the parliament that is blocking development projects," said the secretary general of the Gulf Civil Society Forum.

The opposition groups held around 20 seats in the 50-member parliament which the emir dissolved in December following a bitter political crisis and youth-led street protests inspired by the Arab Spring.

"Based on our studies and polls, I believe the opposition will win between at least 26 and 33 seats," said Talal al-Kashti, general manager of Ittejahat Studies and Research Centre, an independent think-tank.

"(Sunni) Islamists are expected to double their strength to between 15 and 19 seats," up from nine in the dissolved chamber, Kashti told AFP.

About 50 opposition candidates are among 286 hopefuls, including 23 women, competing for seats. Kuwait has more than 400,000 eligible voters, 54 percent of them women.

Thirty-eight of the 50 members of the dissolved house are contesting for seats, in addition to 20 former MPs from previous assemblies.

Women hope to repeat their landmark achievement of the last election when they won four seats for the first time since securing full political rights in 2006.

Campaigning has been described as the fiercest in many years with candidates calling for deep reforms, using the huge income from oil to fund development and anti-corruption legislation.

The public prosecutor has questioned 13 ex-MPs on charges that millions of dinars (dollars) were illegally deposited in their local bank accounts, with the opposition alleging the payments were bribes.

The poll comes against a backdrop of intense sectarian tensions between the majority Sunnis and Shiite minority, reflecting regional conflicts.

It also follows the unprecedented youth-led protests that eventually forced former prime minister Sheikh Nasser Mohammed al-Ahmed Al-Sabah to step down.

"Kuwait is on the verge of a fierce and decisive battle between youths and reformists on the one hand and the forces of corruption on the other," independent candidate Abdullah al-Ahmed told an election rally Sunday.

"This election is completely different from all previous elections ... as it will determine the future course of Kuwait," former liberal MP and candidate Abdul Rahman al-Anjari told a rally Monday night.

Opposition candidates have warned that if "forces of corruption" win the election, they will destroy the democratic system and steal the country's assets, estimated at more than $300 billion.

Candidates also urged the ruling family to end infighting among its members and to stop interfering in the elections.

"A section of the ruling family and the government still does not believe in democracy and this is the main problem," Rashid said.

Kuwait allowed for the first time about 25 international and 300 local observers to monitor the elections.

Regardless of the election results, the prime minister will be a senior member of the ruling Al-Sabah family, which also occupies the key portfolios of defense, interior and foreign affairs.

Under Kuwaiti law, at least one elected MP must be included in the cabinet but unelected ministers become members in parliament and enjoy voting powers, an issue that was criticized by candidates.