The 'pilot zones' and the plan for a Lebanon ceasefire

Israel and Lebanon have agreed to implement a ceasefire that would require Hezbollah to stop firing, withdraw from near the border and would see Lebanon's army deploy in new "pilot zones" in the area.

The Iran-backed group has rejected the proposed arrangement, instead demanding a comprehensive ceasefire and the withdrawal of Israeli troops from Lebanon.

AFP examines the agreement, announced in a joint statement after a fourth round of U.S.-led talks between Israel and Lebanon in Washington on Wednesday.

- South of the Litani -

According to the statement, the ceasefire is "contingent on a complete cessation of Hezbollah fire and the evacuation of all Hezbollah operatives" from south of Lebanon's Litani River, which runs around 30 kilometers (20 miles) from the border.

Under a November 2024 ceasefire that sought to end a previous round of fighting between Israel and Hezbollah, the group's fighters were supposed to withdraw north of the river and the Lebanese Army was to dismantle the group's military infrastructure in the area.

In January, the army said it had finished doing so -- but weeks later, fighting erupted there once again when Hezbollah drew Lebanon into the Middle East war on March 2.

A Hezbollah official told journalists last month that the group had managed to send reinforcements and weapons to the area after the war began.

Israel's ambassador to the United States, Yechiel Leiter, who was part of Wednesday's talks in Washington, told reporters that "the first step is that the Hezbollah fighters, these terrorists who have come down to the south have to go back to the north," saying they numbered more than 2,000.

"We will guarantee them safe passage as long as they leave," he said.

"But after a certain amount of time -- which is not very long -- if they don't make their way back to the north, then they know exactly what's coming," he added.

- 'Pilot zones' -

The agreement includes the creation of "pilot zones" where Lebanon's army "will take exclusive control of the territory to the exclusion of all non-state actors".

Prime Minister Nawaf Salam said the army's planned deployment in such areas was a tangible step that "does not prejudice our right to a full (Israeli) withdrawal, but brings us closer to it".

Michael Young of the Carnegie Middle East Center think tank, in Beirut, said the plan "is full of pitfalls, full of potential problems and ambiguities".

"But it's the first serious plan... where they are addressing Hezbollah's disarmament," he told AFP.

Young said that allowing the army to take control of the pilot zones after Hezbollah's withdrawal would avoid a confrontation between Lebanon's military and the militants.

The plan implies U.S. recognition "that a full-front assault on Hezbollah to disarm the militia is not a realistic option" for Lebanon's army, he said.

- 'Political decision -

Lebanese authorities, who have been under U.S. and Israel pressure to disarm Hezbollah, took the largely symbolic step of banning the group's military activities after it attacked Israel on March 2.

But they stopped there, in part fearing that the unity of the underfunded, under-resourced force, which counts some 80,000 personnel, could crack in case of a confrontation with the powerful Iran-backed group.

"The army won't fight any domestic Lebanese component... it doesn't want to start a civil war," said retired Lebanese military general Khalil Gemayel, who once commanded forces south of the Litani.

"Disarming Hezbollah requires a political decision" as happened with other militias after Lebanon's 1975-1990 civil war, he added.