Slovenia Set for Snap Polls Unlikely to End Turmoil

Slovenians head to the polls on Sunday faced with a choice between a political novice and a former prime minister serving time for corruption and with little hope of returning their troubled country to stability.

The vote will be the second early elections in three years for Slovenia, a once model member of the European Union that has been on a downward spiral since the 2008 financial crisis.

Miro Cerar, a prestigious law professor, is favored to win despite his lack of political experience, and analysts predict that any new government will not last long, spelling further instability for the small nation of two million.

The Miro Cerar Party, which he founded only in June, is expected to win between 29 and 37 percent of the vote, according to the latest polls.

The main opposition center-right Slovenian Democratic Party, whose leader, former prime minister Janez Jansa, began serving a two-year prison sentence just last month, is meanwhile polling at 15 to 24 percent.

Slovenia's leaders agreed to hold snap elections on July 13, even though it is the height of the summer holiday season, after Prime Minister Alenka Bratusek lost the support of her center-left Positive Slovenia (PS) party and resigned in May.

During her year in office, Slovenia avoided a much-dreaded bailout and recapitalised its largest state-owned banks.

But public debt increased to 70 percent of gross domestic product in 2013, and little was done to halt the decline in quality of life for ordinary Slovenians amid crippling austerity measures and high unemployment.

Observers warn that, regardless of the election results, more turmoil lies ahead for the former Yugoslav republic.

"I deeply doubt these elections will bring more political stability. In fact, we may face (fresh early elections) even faster than we did now," Matevz Tomsic, a professor at the Nova Gorica School of Social Sciences, told AFP.

"Cerar has no experience at all as a leader and, if even if he forms a coalition, he will hardly be able to head a government," he added.

Jansa, 55, who hopes to get his jail sentence overturned, tweeted from prison that Cerar's party had "no program and no honor".

But Cerar, a 51-year-old Ljubljana University law professor who helped draft Slovenia's first constitution in 1990 and has been advising parliament on legal issues for more than 20 years, is confident that he can make a difference.

"The existing parties can't find a way out of the deadlock and there was no other solution than to become active and try to renew the political stage," he told AFP this week.

Slovenians see him as a welcome alternative to squabbling politicians and corruption scandals.

"Cerar's high public support reflects a new way for people to reject politics," the daily Delo noted in an editorial.

The PS is unlikely to make it into the new parliament, while Bratusek's new Alenka Bratusek Alliance might just scrape by. The Democratic Party of Pensioners, a regular coalition partner, can expect between five and 10 percent.

Despite returning to growth this year, Slovenia remains under the close watch of the European Commission because of its weak corporate governance and high public debt, which tripled from 2008 to 2013.

Ratings agency Standard & Poor's revised its outlook for the country from stable to negative in late June, warning that the political uncertainty could undermine reform efforts.

Bratusek, who launched a privatization drive to reduce public debt, has urged her successors to stay the course.

"Stability could be hampered if at the elections Slovenia does not get a firm government that will continue along the path we've drawn," she told AFP recently.

Cerar has already spoken out against privatizing infrastructure companies such as Ljubljana airport, the port of Koper or telecommunications company Telekom.

But he promised: "We will not halt the privatizations if they've reached a point at which it could damage Slovenia's credibility or cause losses."

Some 1.7 million eligible voters will be able to cast their ballots from 7:00 am (0500 GMT) on Sunday. First exit polls are expected soon after polls close at 7:00 pm, with first partial official results announced later that evening.