Japan Experts Say Future Risk of Giant Tsunami is Likely

The potential impact from an earthquake off Japan’s southern coast is very likely, Japan experts say, and estimates show that much of the country's Pacific shore could be inundated by a tsunami more than 34 meters (112 feet) high, the Agence Presse said Monday.

A government-commissioned panel of experts says a tsunami unleashed by a magnitude-9.0 earthquake in the Nankai trough, which runs east of Japan's main island of Honshu to the southern island of Kyushu, could top 34 meters. An earlier forecast in 2003 put the potential maximum height of such a tsunami at less than 20 meters (66 feet).

A government website posted the revisions which are based on new research following last March's magnitude-9.0 earthquake and tsunami, which devastated a long stretch of Japan's northeastern coast and killed about 19,000 people.

The tsunami knocked out power at the 40-year-old coastal nuclear plant, leading to the worst nuclear disaster since Chernobyl in 1986. Tens of thousands of residents have had to leave the area, and it's unclear whether some will ever be able to move back.

The Fukushima plant was designed to withstand a 6-meter (20-foot) tsunami. The actual surge was 14 meters (45 feet) high.

Another government report issued last Friday by the Ministry of Education shows that a strong earthquake hitting the Tokyo Bay region could shake the Tokyo-Yokohama metropolitan area — home to more than 33 million people — at the maximum seismic intensity of 7 on the Japanese scale.

The study prompted calls for Tokyoites to be better prepared for such disasters.

The revised tsunami forecast for a possible Nankai earthquake says Tokyo could expect waves up to 2.3 meters (7.6 feet) high. But at the coastal town of Kuroshio, on the island of Shikoku, the tsunami could top 34 meters (112 feet), it shows.