Ukraine Ruling Party Set to Win Election

Ukraine's ruling party was set to win the most votes in legislative elections on Sunday but faced a strong challenge from the party of ex-premier Yulia Tymoshenko whose jailing sparked Western concerns of foul play.

The elections for the 450-seat Verkhovna Rada were a huge test for Ukraine's fragile democracy and already overshadowed by the imprisonment of Tymoshenko who has now spent over a year in jail for abuse of power while in office.

The Regions Party of her arch-foe President Viktor Yanukovych led with 28.1 percent, a narrow 3.4 percentage points over Tymoshenko's Fatherland alliance with 24.7 percent, Ukraine's longest-running exit poll by the Democratic Initiative Foundation found. Four other exit polls gave the same ranking.

Third place on 15.1 percent was held by the new UDAR (Punch) party of world heavyweight boxing champion Vitali Klitschko, marking its breakthrough on the national political scene but relatively disappointing as some pre-election polls had put it in second place.

The vote shares are difficult to interpret as half the seats on the Rada will be awarded based on a proportional system but the other 225 will be given based on first past the post single mandate constituencies.

Further complicating the issue is the probability that five parties will break the 5 percent threshold for entering the new parliament, raising the prospect of political alliances.

The biggest surprise package is the ultra-nationalist Svoboda (Freedom) party which, according to critics, is a far-right force with a track record of racist rhetoric.

Projected to win 12.3 percent of the vote, it appears to have done well on frustration with the existing political heavyweights.

Meanwhile, Ukraine's Communists appear to have undergone a minor revival against the background of economic crisis and were predicted to take 11.8 percent.

Klitschko admitted afterwards on national television he had hoped the party would have picked up more votes but also said it was ready to form an alliance in parliament with the Tymoshenko forces and Svoboda.

Respected political analyst Volodymyr Fesenko said while the Regions Party would fall short of an overall majority it should be able to form one with the help of independent but loyal candidates from the single-mandate constituencies.

"Thus it seems the question of the majority is almost decided," the director of the Penta Research Institute said on Channel One television.

The elections were the first big vote in Ukraine -- wedged between the European Union and Russia and still undecided about whose alliance it values most -- since 2004 Orange Revolution co-leader Tymoshenko lost a close presidential ballot to Yanukovych in early 2010.

As ever defiant, Tymoshenko issued a statement from detention calling on Ukraine to oust Yanukovych from power.

"Every one of us has to fight this dictatorship the best they can. Your mass turnout can help overcome ballot rigging," she said. "This will be your personal contribution to the removal of Yanukovych from power."

Tymoshenko, who is currently outside of prison receiving treatment in hospital, voted while lying down in bed in the presence of two international observers.

Western nations fear the October 2011 abuse of power conviction for Tymoshenko is retribution by the president and the European Union has largely shunned Yanukovych in recent months.

Concerns that two years of Yanukovych in power have sidelined Ukraine from its democratic course prompted U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton to issue a rare joint appeal to the ruling elite to ensure democratic polls.

"Today's parliamentary vote is an important test for democracy and the rule of law," German Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle added in a message on Sunday.

A big loser in the polls appears to be the recently-retired football star Andriy Shevchenko who had astonished his fans by becoming a leading figure in the Ukraine Forward! party of former Tymoshenko ally Natalya Korolevska.

According to the exit poll, it won only 1.6 percent of the vote, leaving the former AC Milan star's political future uncertain.