Italy Top Court to Shape Berlusconi's Political Fate

Italy's Supreme Court meets Tuesday to examine a fraud trial against Silvio Berlusconi which could see him ousted from politics and risks upsetting the country's fragile coalition government.

The court will rule on whether to uphold a tax fraud conviction against the former premier and confirm the one-year prison sentence and a five-year ban from public office, which would effectively end his 20-year political career.

Though Berlusconi's advancing age means he is unlikely to go to jail, the 76-year-old billionaire swore in an interview published Sunday that he would do rather do time behind bars, if found definitively guilty, than take advantage of lenient punishment for the over 70s.

"I will not go into exile. Nor will I accept being entrusted to social services, like a criminal who has to be reeducated," he said in an interview in the center-right Libero daily.

Berlusconi said he would also refuse to take advantage of Italy's policy to let elderly people carry out sentences under house arrest.

"I am almost 78 years old and I would have the right to house arrest, but if they find me guilty, if they take on that responsibility, I will go to prison," he said.

Whether he goes to jail or not, Berlusconi's banishment from parliament would be a blow to the center-right. It could also unsettle Prime Minister Enrico Letta's center-left and right coalition, already riven with bickering.

The trial, which began seven years ago, concerns Berlusconi's Mediaset business empire and revolves around prices of film distribution rights bought by the company that were artificially inflated in order to avoid taxes.

The tax scam helped the fraudsters create secret overseas accounts and reduce profits to pay fewer taxes in Italy.

While prosecutors insist the buck stopped with Berlusconi, the former cruise-ship crooner denies the charges and says he was too busy with his political career to play any role in dealing with issues such as film rights.

"I am quite optimistic, they cannot find me guilty. I was the prime minister (at the time of the alleged crime), what could I possibly have known about contracts for television rights?" he said.

Berlusconi's position as a senator offers him some protection, for even if the court upholds the guilty verdict against him, it will be for the senators to vote on whether to deprive him of his seat in the upper house.

It is not clear how long the Rome court will take to examine the case. While a ruling could come as early as Tuesday, the hearings could also last several days. The judges may even postpone their decision to later in the year.

"I haven't slept for a month. I wake up at night and stare at the ceiling, thinking about what they've done to me," said the media magnate, who has long accused left-wing magistrates of having a personal vendetta against him.

Both Berlusconi and Letta have insisted that the Mediaset ruling will not have an effect on the government.

Some political analysts however have warned that the mogul's loyalists are plotting to pull the plug and force a fresh election if it goes against him.

But others say the former premier knows the risks of such a move are too high; among other things, a withdrawal of his center-right People of Freedom (PDL) party from government could open the way to an alliance between the left and Italy's Five Star protest movement.

The right would also need time before the next general election to establish its identity, after two decades under the showman's helmsmanship.

Whatever the court's decision, it is unlikely to signal the end of Berlusconi.

Many analysts dismissed him as a political force after he was ousted from power at the end of 2011, but he staged an impressive comeback for the elections in February, almost stealing victory from a shocked left, which was later forced to share power.

Even if he were ousted from parliament, he may very well bid to stay on as a figurehead for the right.

Prime minister briefly in 1994, then from 2001 to 2006 and again from 2008 to 2011, Berlusconi's battles with the law have marked his public life but he has repeatedly benefited from criminal statutes of limitation.

The magnate has faced charges including corruption, tax fraud, false accounting and illegally financing political parties, but while some initial judgement have gone against him, he has never been definitively convicted.

In June, Berlusconi was sentenced to seven years in jail for paying for sex with an underage prostitute and abusing his power to hide the liaison, but the sentence was suspended to allow for a lengthy appeals process.